Fort Jones, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

891
FXUS66 KMFR 191101
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
401 AM PDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.DISCUSSION...

Unusually warm temperatures mixed with some fire weather
conditions are the main headlines in the forecast for today. The
fire weather conditions are discussed in the Fire Weather section
below. We set 6 temperature records yesterday with North Bend the
only site missing out due to some onshore flow and coastal
stratus.

The Extreme Forecast Index(EFI) continues to show widespread
values of 1 today. This suggests the ECMWF ensemble members are
all exceeding the model climatology in widespread areas. The 500
mb heights around 586dm are also in the extremes of climatology
for this time of year in northern California. This will continue
to result in daytime temperatures pushing 15 to 25 degrees above
normal for mid March with multiple records falling.

Alturas` record of 81 could be tied or perhaps fall.
Mount Shasta City`s record of 74 will fall to a high around 82.
Montague`s record of 77 will probably fall to a high around 79.
Medford`s record of 81 could be tied or perhaps fall.
Klamath Falls` record of 72 will fall to a high around 76.
Roseburg`s record of 81 will likely stand today as we`re only
forecasting a high of 76 up there. There will be some weak lift
farther to the north in Central Oregon, so some high clouds
could keep things a little cooler up there. There is also some
stronger onshore flow

By Friday, the ridge begins to break down as 500 mb heights start
to lower over Oregon and northern California. Even with the
breakdown, we`re still expecting some more temperature records to
fall across the region. Eventually, a short wave and cold front
will push into the forecast area around Saturday morning with a
slight chance of rain. No impacts are anticipated with this
frontal passage. Temperatures will trend cooler as relatively
cooler air moves in behind the front. Monday will be a be a break
between the systems before models want to spin up another low in
the Pacific. The GFS low center still seems to be too far east
compared to the ensemble range. In any case, the probability of
precipitation forecast is around 60 to 80 percent Tuesday into
Wednesday with snow levels dropping down to 4000 feet behind the
front. Don`t count on a lot of snow with this system as only a
few inches are anticipated in the Cascades.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail across most
inland areas through the TAF period. Along the coast and over the
coastal waters, expect a mix of LIFR and IFR conditions in marine
stratus tonight through Thursday morning. This will be widespread
north of Cape Blanco, including North Bend, but also expect areas of
IFR/LIFR south of Cape Blanco tonight/Thursday morning. Low clouds
and fog will burn off along the coast late Thursday morning with
conditions lifting to VFR.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, March 19, 2026...Conditions
will remain below advisory levels through Friday evening. A
thermal trough develops early Saturday, bringing gusty north winds
with gales possible into Sunday, and steep to very steep seas
possible into Monday. The outlook is for conditions to briefly
improve Monday afternoon and evening. Advisory strength winds are
likely around the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe as another cold
front swings through the waters. Gales are also possible if the
front is strong enough.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, March 18, 2026...An
abnormally strong ridge remains in place today and tomorrow, then
will retreat as a dry cold front approaches and passes through the
area Friday into Saturday.

Under the ridge, very warm conditions continue, with near-record or
record daily high temperatures expected again today, with low
daytime humidities and moderate recoveries, poor over the ridges.

The mostly dry front approaches the area tomorrow into Friday before
passing through the region Friday night into Saturday. This will
produce breezy winds across the area, with gusty winds of 25 mph or
more eats of the Cascades. These winds, combined with residual low
humidities, will produce critical fire weather conditions in fire
zones 625 and eastern 624, with dry and breezy conditions expected
elsewhere east of the Cascades, including in Modoc and eastern
Siskiyou counties. With the abnormally dry conditions, low snowpack,
and pre-greenup fuels across the area of concern, a Red Flag Warning
has been issued for Thursday afternoon for zones 625 and eastern
624. In these areas, there is a 50 to 70 percent probability of
humidities below 15 percent occuring concurrent with wind gusts above
25 mph. These ensembles have a tendency to underestimate winds and
overestimate humidities, so those probabilities may actually be
higher within the Warning area. Details on the Red Flag Warning can
be found in the PDXRFWMFR.

Conditions Friday afternoon will be similar, but slightly improved,
although dry humidities and gusty winds are still expected, and will
shift slightly east and south from those on Thursday.

Conditions cool to more seasonable values and humidities rise a bit
this weekend behind the departing front, then wetter and cooler
conditions are possible with a more active pattern by the middle of
next week. -BPN

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$